The self-styled Tamileelam Air Force has intruded and bombed targets in government controlled areas including the capital Colombo at least three times, though authorities seem to be getting better at detecting the aircraft with each succeeding raid.
Borrowed Time
Military analysts say that Sri Lanka needs to equip its aircraft with air-to-air missiles and airborne target acquisition radar with a suitable fire control system and perhaps other facilities such as forward looking infra-red (FLIR) sensor systems to tackle the Flying Tigers.
"I do not know whether we have target acquisition radar in all our jets, but given time and money we can fill the gaps," former Sri Lanka Air Force commander Air Marshall Harry Goonetilleke told LBO.
"I am sure an assessment has already been made and we know what needs to be done, it takes some time to get equipment."
Goonetilleke says it typically takes about an year to acquire an aircraft under standard government procurement methods but equipment and such as radar could be brought in within 3-to-6 months especially if acquisition is speeded up.
"Before the end of the year we will see the Tiger aircraft being brought down," Goonetilleke predicts confidently.
"Otherwise there is something seriously wrong with our military."
Sri Lanka Air Force is already known to have French made Matra R-550 heat seeking missiles which have been fixed on the Mil Mi-24/35 helicopter gun ships though whether they are also available on the Kfir and MiG jet fighters is not clear.
Meanwhile Sri Lanka is also acquiring advanced Mikoyan and Gurevich MiG-29 aircraft, ostensibly to fight the converted trainers of the Tamil Tigers, to the amusement of some analysts.
While it looks like an overkill, they also say the Sri Lanka Air Force may be acquiring a toy that it has been hankering after for some time, which can be used for other purposes than just shooting down Flying Tigers.
Early Detection
The Sunday Times newspaper has said the aircraft that bombed petroleum facilities around Colombo at 1.50 am on the World Cup final day had been detected as early as 12.40 am from radars at the northern frontier town of Vavuniya.
The Tiger aircraft are currently exploiting the inability of ground based conventional micro-wave radar to 'see' low flying aircraft beyond 12-15 kilometers which allows them to 'hide' under the curvature of the earth.
To detect the air craft Sri Lanka needs more radars at different locations, preferably at higher elevations, and airborne radar.
Sri Lanka is getting more radar units from India. The so-called 2-dimensional radar gives a 'trace' without height, but analysts say that is good enough to vector interceptors in, as the Tiger aircraft are known to be flying low anyway.
Sri Lanka is also known to have a Beechcraft 200 HISAR surveillance aircraft, equipped with a Hughes synthetic aperture radar system which the makers Raytheon says can track low flying aircraft in addition to ground and sea targets.
Synthetic Aperture Radar, used in the legendary U-2 spy planes, can operate through clouds and bad weather.
"The system provides precise imagery and intelligence under almost any weather condition," Raytheon said in 2002 after a winning a 10 million dollar plus order from an 'unspecified South Asian customer.'
"During the typical modes of operation, the radar provides wide-area moving target indication, narrow sector searches, strip and spot searches, and sea surveillance."
Air Force spokesman Ajantha Silva declined to comment on the use of the Beechcraft or whether it was actively involved in recent incidents saying it was an operational matter of the air force.
Reports also said defenders at the Kolonnawa petroleum depot had tried to use an SA-16 MANPAD (Man-Portable Air-Defence System) against an oncoming Tiger aircraft but the system had not locked onto the target.
The report did not say whether they had also tried to hit the aircraft when it left the area (as opposed to when it flew in) when the internal combustion engine's exhaust of the departing aircraft would perhaps have given a better infra-red signature.
Bedcheck Charlie
The Tamil Tigers are employing a strategy used to good effect in previous conflicts, particularly in the Korean War, where slow-moving North Korean aircraft flew under American radar at night and bombed their airbases.
The low-flying aircraft, dubbed 'Bedcheck Charlie' by US airmen, slipped away into the night before the Americans could react.
The US Air Force which had much superior North American F-86 Sabre fighter jets found that the aircraft were too fast to engage the antiquated enemy aircraft in addition to lacking night-fighting capabilities.
They were embarrassed in much the same way as the Sri Lanka Air Force is now.
The North Koreans used several types of aircraft for 'Charlie' sorties, supplied by the Soviet Union.
One type was the pre-World War II Polikarpov Po-02 bi-plane which was later also acquired by Pathet Lao insurgents for their air wing, one of the many guerilla and separatist groups to own aircraft (See Third Dimension) throughout aviation history.
Yakovlev Saga
Another type was the Yakovlev Yak – 18 which entered service just after World War II.
It is not known whether the Po-02s were used in battle against Royal Lao or US elements by the communist insurgents as little information is available on the so-called 'Secret War' which was largely fought on the sly by the CIA.
But the Yak -18 has a more interesting history.
The current primary trainer of the SLAF, the Nanchang PT-06, is also derived from the venerable Yak-18 because at one time the Soviets shared their technology with the Chinese.
A Yak-18 derivative was also used by a rebel air wing much like the 'Tamileelam Air Force' from an entity like 'Tamil Eelam' that no nation recognizes.
The Abkhazian Air Force of the rebel province of Abkhazia near the former Soviet Republic of Georgia used the Yak-52, a Yak-18 derivative, to start their fledgling air wing.
The converted trainers armed with machine guns were first said to have been used operationally in 1992.
The Abkhazian Air Force posed a strong challenge to the forces of Georgia, until an uneasy ceasefire came into effect.
In the Korean war, piston-engined US Navy Vought F4U Corsair night-fighters were eventually brought in to combat the 'Bedcheck Charlie' night intruders, many of which, including some Yak -18s were then shot down.
A Navy pilot also became an 'ace' bagging five Bedcheck Charlies.
Hide and Seek
Sri Lankan air force pilots would also be looking for kills in the air.
Though the SLAF is tightlipped about any of their operations there are indications that air force jets were vectored to chase one or more returning Flying Tigers along the west coast on April 29.
Analysts say SLAF aircraft that bombed Vishvamadhu were also in air at the same time as the Tamil Tigers and the there was ample time to get more aircraft airborne.
Though a Mil Mi-24 gunship which was scrambled, it was later reported to have crashed on take-off.
Ground based observations of jet aircraft activity off Chilaw indicate that SLAF aircraft were active in chasing a returning Tiger aircraft.
Analysts say if the aircraft had target acquisition radar on board they could independently find targets, but if vectors were given from elsewhere, it would be heard by the Tiger pilots giving them a chance to take evasive action very early.
Goonetilleke says there are procedures like R/T discipline that is followed in war-time which can help minimize the other side eavesdropping.
However with each passing raid, more information is coming out, and SLAF pilots and radar operators are getting a chance to hone their skills and co-ordination, which is sometimes more valuable than technology itself.
"The aircraft seem to be coming from Kilinochchi to Mannar and around the coast and coming down along the western coast to Colombo," says Goonetilleke.
He says the aircraft may be held in underground bunkers around Kilinochchi, perhaps even around the Iranamadu air strip.
"The LTTE has artillery pieces underground and they bring them up for battle," says Goonetilleke.
"If the wings are folded they can be taken underground and brought up when they want them."
Non of the carefully-cropped pictures released by the LTTE so far has shown much more than the wing roots of their Zlin Z-143 to see if the wings had been modified anywhere through their midsections.
He says destroying the aircraft on the ground is one option.
Plus ca change
However the LTTE has for the most part managed to hide their artillery pieces despite the availability of technologies such as FIREFINDER radar which can indicate where fire is coming from.
Even if Sri Lanka acquires night fighters, analysts say it may not be a cake-walk, and the Tigers may be able survive for a longer time, depending on the skill of their pilots and the countermeasures available.
The Tigers could also have defenses similar to the successful ELTA Flight Guard system, or simpler manual counter measures, which can delay the chances of a quick kill for the Sri Lanka Air Force.
The Tigers have also not used incendiary devices so far even on oil facilities, indicating that they were perhaps secondary targets.
In addition the Flying Tigers may also be able to suffer losses and still carry on, or bring in much more sophisticated aircraft, much like another of their ilk did in 1967.
For over two and a half years, the 'air force' of the short lived break-away Nigerian province of Biafra caused heavy damage to government assets, including its air power and oil facilities.
The Flying Tigers' Zlin Z-143s are eerily reminiscent of the so-called 'Biafra Babies', a squadron of five SAAB MFI-9B trainers converted by a Swedish aristocrat for the Biafrans.
They caused heavy damage to Nigerian oil facilities and other military assets.
Like Sri Lanka's MiG 29s, the Nigerian government was given MiG-17s by friendly powers to hit back at the Biafra forces.
The 'Biafra Babies' went into Nigerian government territory despite the MiGs. Nor were they brought down by ground fire, though some MiGs were believed to have been destroyed on the ground by the 'Babies.'
In addition to the 'Bedcheck Charlies', the existence of helicopters in modern warfare as well as slow-moving, low-flying aircraft like the Fairchild-Republic A-10 Thunderbolt and the earlier Douglas A-1 Skyraider shows that it is not easy to knock such aircraft out of the sky as their flight envelope has inherent advantages over fast moving aircraft.
Until they are brought down however the Tigers have managed to push Sri Lanka into a costly arms race which is pounding the economy with friendly fire.
It means that if we go and buy arms from China and/or Pakistan and/or anyone else they do not want us to buy arms from, then they are going to do things that we may not like.
This is something we have to take into account when making our war plans. We do not know what they will do. The only way is to go ahead and buy some arms from Pakistan and China and everyone else whom India does not want us to buy arms from and then see what happens.
At the very least we will have a coalition of anti Indian Countries and arms dealers on our side and let us hope they will come to our assistance if we do not like what India does in response.
The indian national security advisor Mr. M.K.Narayan has stated that they do not want Sri Lanka to turn to Pakistan and China for military aid.
..instead they want us to come to them for any such needs and he further states that they will not sell us any offensive weapons!!.
This remark was made following a discussion he had with Karunanidhi the chief minister of Tamilnadu.
Well I don`t know whether it`s the effect of Mr.Karunanidhi`s cup of tea that make Mr. Narayan make such statements.
But what do they mean by "The don't want us to go to China or Pakistan"??
The Democratic Socialist Republic Of Sri Lanka and her armed forces are independant and soveriegn well legitimately established authorities which are equall to those of India in soveriegnity !!..
what sane rights does Mr.Narayan has to make such a statement? as if he is doing the decision making for us?.
we as a nation will do whatever in our purchasing power to protect our soveriegnity and territorial integrity and India should mind her own business (telling them very frankly) rather than trying to parent us because they are not legally in a position to do so.
Much stronger states than India have tried to meddle in internal conflicts of smaller nations and have earned scars that are yet to heal properly.and Indians seem to be forgetting their own lesson learned at the cost of over 1200 lives trying to be the so called Peace keepers when their north is also on fire.
once again it is not in the capacity of Mr.Narayan to decide what we should do. Indians may be dreaming of gaining Lanka`s control one day but such malicious dreams will prove staggering costs to India if attempted to realise.
i as a independent and soveriegn citizen of Sri Lanka strongly condemn Mr.Narayan`s statement and hope that our government will not be deviated from any attempts to secure the country over such worthless and insignificant statements made by a foreign country`s national security advisor.
These were found totally unsuitable for the situation - maybe the airforce wanted a chance to fly jet planes for the first time.
Now, purchasing MIG29s to down slow aircraft appears to be similarly ridiculous.
""Before the end of the year we will see the Tiger aircraft being brought down," Goonetilleke predicts confidently. "Otherwise there is something seriously wrong with our military.""
How about if someone said the following:
"By now we should have seen the end of the conflict"
"That it is still going on proves that there is something seriously wrong with our military solution strategy."
We have been told by 'experts' that Flying Tigers were the worlds first militant air force?
Thank you for enlightening us.
How many other rebel air forces have been there?
Anyone got any ideas how to weather the coming storm? or is it all aboard for Blighty?
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/COL192233.htm
Local investors also have a negative view ofthe situi, though not as bad as that ofteh foriegners.
Many ofthem are now looking at India. Carlsberg, Brandix, MAS so far. The tourism sector is also looking to sell India (in addition to the Maldives which they do already). Who will be next?
Remember, Prabha helped Mahinda into presidency knowing quite well that MR was pro-violence.
So he has to have some tricks up his sleeve, unless he's getting old, soft and careless.
All these activities are used to divide the country, divide the nation.
First we have to stop cheap politics. It’s so sad to see how cheap the UNP politics are at the moment.
UNP leader is asking to change the defence minister who took the office a year ago and have been doing his job with the best he has.
However the same UNP leader tried more 10 years to grab the power in the country and he is still incompetent. So who should leave the office? Stories go on blaming each other in the political cycle.
We all know the motivation of air attacks by Terrorist. Now the simple solution is correct your mistake and stand-up and fight back.
When defence spokespersons go on interviews, they don’t have to tell stories to impress the newspapers. Perhaps some information about the current situation is more than enough.
They don’t have tell the action plan to make them look good in front of mic or the camera. They should synchronize with all the levels of government voices.
I don’t know about the performance of Air Marshall Goonetilleke when he was in the office. But his current assessment is fair enough.
Take a note when improving the air force defence system. When the country fails then its not only the political party fails but also the whole county fails. Then to whom to be blamed?.
Then best weapon we need defeat the LTTE terrorism is unity among all the sri lanka. To get that stop cheap politics, admit mistakes and correct them as soon as possible.
We Sri lankans have supported elected Sri lankan Governments for 3 decades to finish the LTTE terrorism. We will continue our full support our national arm forces and the elected governments to defeat the terrorism.
That is why the thinking is changing.
However, i do appreciate the issues raied by the author,hats off to him for an excellent work.
But the question is, Air Marshall Goonetilleke being an ex.commander of the SLAF ,what did he do to adress such ,then future threats like we face to day vis a vis the LTTE air attacks?
Did he contribute to a culture of ignorance within Military hiarachy or did he really did some yoeman service to the country?
What are the low cost/low tech options the government can cosider in terms of defeating the LTTE 'air power' ,rather than going for a very expensive option?
May be he should forward a copy of this article to his son, the present commander of SLAF.
The main point is that even US a super power then had same issues as this. Lets be patient and let the LTTE make a mistake.
We should make sure that we start looking at small preperations such as air sirens , search lights and flak guns.
As a immidiate requirenment........ even a lucky hit can bring these things down........ and most of all stand united.....
As for the investors who have gone would have gone years ago.
Those who come, come due to the returns being adquate even with a war premium...
Is he going to suggest those who is in charge of the Government to buy Robots from Japan to stop such intruders.
Get back to normal senses get real and try and solve the problem on a meaningful manner instead of giving advise to escalate the present grond condition.
Good Luck naviw
As he had mention Koren war example I belive we need low tech. air craft neturalize TAF.
I dont think we can have quick win over them soon!!!!! it is bit of too much optimatic point of view.
However, it is sooner the better.
But i dont agree with Mr Goonathileka's remarks that tiger air would suffer by year end.
We've stuffed up too many times to have such an optimistic remark!!
No doubt potential investors will be thrilled by this news. The global community will also no doubt be excited to hear that the government intends to carry on fighting at least till December thereby delaying the possibility of realizing any of the islands developmental potential or exploiting its resources.
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