Oct 03, 2013 (LBO) – Gold prices could fall below 1,200 US dollars an ounce as the United States withdraws exceptional money printing operations and speculative investment demand weakens, Fitch Ratings said. The rating agency under its methodology 1,200 US dollars an ounce was a base case for a ceiling price for the next three years but the precious metal could fall as low as 1,000 US dollars on its ‘stress case’ forecast.
“With an imminent unwinding of US quantitative easing and expectations of an improving but unspectacular economic growth prospects, Fitch is confident that at USD1,200/oz, the upside for the price of gold has diminished for at least the next three years,” the rating agency said.
“However, the downside of further price declines, and an overshoot, remains a real possibility.”
Gold prices have typically gone up when central banks print money and before fully fiat high inflationary money came into use after the closure of the Fed gold window in 1971, rising gold prices was the key signal for monetary policy to tighten.
Until the US Fed devalued the dollar in 1933 to 35 dollars an ounce, gold prices have been about 20 dollars an ounce since 1792.
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