US may hike rates in Oct, SL seen holding steady


Aug 31, 2015 (LBO) – There is a little more than fifty percent chance of the United States hiking interest rates in October for the first time in more than a decade, traders say.

Quotes on overnight indexed swaps reveal a 56 percent chance of an October rate increase.

Dennis Lockhart, a voting member on the U.S. central bank policy-setting group, has said a 50-percent probability of a hike at the Sept 16-17 meeting seems reasonable, although other analysts put this probability lower at around 37 percent.

Loose monetary policy has supported equity markets worldwide which analysts say has supported stock bubbles as in China. Sri Lanka too has followed loose monetary policy, which some blame for investors selling out government securities in recent months.

Sri Lanka’s Monetary Board will hold its monthly meeting today to decide on policy interest rates. A majority of dealers expect interest rates will be held unchanged. This is despite a managed adjustment and uptick of 30 basis points on treasury bill rates last week.

Two analysts out of 13 polled expect a 25 basis points increase in the standing deposit facility rate (SDFR) and one expects a 50 basis points cut in the standing lending facility rate (SLFR), a report by Reuters showed.

The Monetary Board will announce its statement at 7.30 pm on Monday.