Jan 20, 2016 (LBO) – Growth in emerging market are projected to increase from four percent in 2015 to 4.3 and 4.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively, the latest International Monetary Fund’s global forecast says.
“Growth in China is expected to slow to 6.3 percent in 2016 and 6.0 percent in 2017, primarily reflecting weaker investment growth as the economy continues to rebalance,” the IMF said.
“India and the rest of emerging Asia are generally projected to continue growing at a robust pace, although with some countries facing strong headwinds from China’s economic re-balancing and global manufacturing weakness.”
Higher growth is projected for the Middle East, but lower oil prices, and in some cases geopolitical tensions and domestic strife, continue to weigh on the outlook.
Global growth is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017 which has been revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for both years, on weaker pickup in emerging economies than was forecast in October.
In terms of the country composition, the forecast says the revisions are largely accounted for by Brazil, where the recession caused by political uncertainty amid continued fallout from the Petrobras investigation is proving to be deeper and more protracted than previously expected; the Middle East, where prospects are hurt by lower oil prices; and the United States, where growth momentum is now expected to hold steady rather than gather further steam.
Prospects for global trade growth have also been marked down by more than 0.5 percentage point for 2016 and 2017, reflecting developments in China as well as distressed economies.