Three possible scenarios coming out of the November Presidential polls
This analysis is based on the updated district based voter numbers prepared by the Department of Elections.
The source for data is the website of Department of Elections (www.slelections.gov.lk). Accordingly there are 13,327,160 eligible voters for the Presidential Election 2005.
Conclusion
Following points should be noted
-
A loss of votes for the political party in power has been witnessed in
almost every election in Sri Lanka in the past. Therefore it is reasonable
to assume that there will be a swing away from the UPFA towards UNP during
PE 2005. The percentage swing would depend on each presidential candidate�s
personality and his ability to convince the voters on the promises made in
the manifesto. -
Having taken into account the contents of respective manifestos and the way
the campaigns have been conducted up to now, it is analyst�s opinion that
the maximum swing of votes may not exceed 1% in all districts except in
Colombo. The assumed swing in Colombo is higher (3%) as it is analyst�s
opinion that high inflation, which UPF