Fitch Ratings has updated the U.S. Effective Tariff Monitor following the Joint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva, May 12, 2025, that reduces reciprocal tariffs. Fitch estimates that the U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR) is now 13.1%, a notable decline from 22.8% prior to the statement.
The 34% reciprocal rate imposed by the U.S. on April 2, 2025, is suspended for 90 days, and the subsequent increase in the reciprocal rate announced on April 8 and 9 is cancelled. While the tariff agreement is a significant de-escalation, a U.S. ETR of around 13% was last seen in 1941 and remains much higher compared to 2.3% at the end of 2024. The ETR represents total duties as a percentage of total imports and changes with shifts in import share by country of origin and product mix.
The U.S. ETR for China remains the highest at 31.8%, reflecting duties imposed on China prior to April 2, 2025, plus a 10% baseline tariff imposed on most countries. This is down from 103.6%. Japan, Mexico, Canada, Germany, which have the next highest exports to the U.S., have ETRs exceeding 10.5%.
The U.S. Effective Tariff Rate Monitor, Fitch’s interactive tariff tool, calculates the ETR on imports from all U.S. trading partners and quantifies current duties. The ETR calculation considers exclusions like carveouts for oil and gas, copper, and pharmaceutical imports. The tool will be updated whenever significant changes in U.S. tariff policy occur. The spreadsheet allows users adjust tariff calculations, such as changing reciprocal rates and import amounts, to create hypothetical tariff scenarios.
The tool also separately calculates the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) tariff and duty estimates for Canada and Mexico, incorporating the 10% tariff on potash and oil and gas.
