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Moody’s places Sri Lanka’s long-term foreign currency issuer rating on review for upgrade

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has announced a review for a potential upgrade of the Government of Sri Lanka's Ca long-term foreign currency issuer rating, which was previously assessed as stable.

Accordingly, Moody's has assigned (P)Caal foreign currency senior unsecured ratings to Sri Lanka's new USD-denominated issuances in its exchange offer. These include the macro-linked bonds (MLBs), the governance-linked bond (GLB), and the step-up and past-due interest (PDI) bonds.

Full Statement

Rating Action: Moody's Ratings places Sri Lanka on review for upgrade; assigns (P)Caal to the new USD-denominated issuances

Singapore, November 28, 2024 -- Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today placed the Government of Sri Lanka's Ca long-term foreign currency issuer rating on review for upgrade. Previously, the outlook was stable.

Concurrently, we have assigned (P)Caal foreign currency senior unsecured ratings to Sri Lanka's new USD-denominated issuances in its exchange offer, specifically the macro-linked bonds (MLBs), the governance-linked bond (GLB), as well as the step-up and past-due interest (PDI) bonds.

The existing Ca ratings on Sri Lanka's foreign currency senior unsecured debt issuances that are in default and will be exchanged for the new debt issuances reflect the expected financial loss and are unchanged.

The decision to place the issuer rating on review for upgrade reflects the announcement of the exchange offer by the government, which if successful will conclude the restructuring of its international bonds held by private-sector creditors and reduce the default risk on new and future issuances. In particular, the relatively comprehensive debt restructuring and ongoing reforms under the government's programmes with development partners including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are leading to a significant reduction in external vulnerability and government liquidity risk, while raising prospects for fiscal and debt sustainability, albeit from a weak starting point. Willingness and capacity to implement reforms speak to Sri Lanka's governance, a driver of this rating action.

The government has been in default since April 2022, when it announced that it would suspend the servicing of external debt repayments.

The review period is expected to last until the exchange offer period closes and is clarity on the outcome of the restructuring of international bonds.

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