First Capital anticipates Sri Lanka ASPI to reach 6,000 by Dec 2019 & 6,500 by Jun 2020


Oct 04, 2019 (LBO) – First Capital Research expects the equity market to adopt an upward trajectory over the next 12 months as they expect the ASPI to reach the next stage of the market cycle “Hope” stage and the Optimism stage.

With the expected uptrend, the research firm targets ASPI to reach 6,000 by the 2019 year-end and 6,500 by Jun 2020.

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“The ASPI, we believe has recovered to Disbelief Stage from Depression stage following the decline in interest rates,” releasing the First Capital’s mid-year economic outlook, Head of Research, Dimantha Mathew said.

“Decline in interest rates is likely to record heavy dip in finance cost for most companies while a possible rise in consumer demand and credit growth may grow earnings of the bulk of the listed companies.

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With the reversal in economic activity and company earnings, First Capital Research expects an upward trend in the market supported by stronger market multiples.

Considering the mid-term positive impact, First Capital Research has upgraded its equity exposure to 90 percent while maintaining ASPI expectations in the range of 6,000-6,500, assuming Market PER to be 8.

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5x – 9.5x.

First Capital anticipates the lower interest regime to continue over the next 9-12 months resulting in most companies recording lower finance costs from 3Q2019 and beyond.

“We also expect the lower interest rate environment and the upcoming elections to boost consumer demand and economic activity resulting in stronger topline growth for most companies,” Dimantha Mathew said.

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“It would also provide an opportunity to improve credit demand as well.

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We expect a considerable improvement in listed company earnings over the next few quarters.
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