Lower global growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024: IMF

economy growth

The World Economic Outlook October Update says global growth is forecast to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024.

The projections remain below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, and the forecast for 2024 is down by 0.1 percentage point from the July 2023 Update to the World Economic Outlook.

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For advanced economies, the expected slowdown is from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024, amid stronger-than-expected US momentum but weaker-than-expected growth in the euro area.

Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have growth modestly decline, from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024, with a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point in 2024, reflecting the property sector crisis in China.

Forecasts for global growth over the medium term, at 3.1 percent, are at their lowest in decades, and prospects for countries to catch up to higher living standards are weak.

Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024.

But the forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are revised up by 0.1 percentage point and 0.6 percentage point, respectively, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases.

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