US ETR Falls to 9.4% as Blanket 10% Tariff Replaces IEEPA Levies: Fitch Ratings

The 10% blanket reciprocal tariff imposed by the U.S. on most trading partners lowers the U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR) to 9.4% from 12.7%, Fitch Ratings says. If the Trump administration imposes a 15% levy, the U.S. ETR would rise to 11.3%.

President Trump acted swiftly to reinstate tariffs following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Feb. 20 that invalidated the reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The new blanket 10% tariff rate is authorized through Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and expires in 150 days unless extended by Congress. Section 122 permits a maximum rate of 15% but does not allow for tariff adjustments for individual countries.

The lower ETR of 9.4% incorporates carve-outs applied to the previous IEEPA reciprocal tariffs for passenger vehicles, pharmaceuticals, United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant goods and certain electronics. The status of existing trade agreements is unclear as the administration continues to use tariffs as a revenue-raising and policy lever.

Prior to the Supreme Court decision, China was subject to two reciprocal tariffs: a fentanyl tariff of 10% that applied to all imports and a 10% reciprocal tariff on an import base subject to carveouts. The two tariffs have been consolidated into the 10% blanket tariff, reducing China’s ETR to around 19% from 29%. China still has the highest ETR among major trading partners, followed by Vietnam, Japan and Brazil. Of the U.S.’s 31 largest trading partners, 26 will see their ETRs decline. Brazil benefits the most, with its ETR decreasing 18 percentage points (pp) to 11% from 29%.

ETRs for most countries largely remain unchanged following the switch in tariff regimes, and no country will see an increase in its ETR if the Section 122 tariff rate remains at 10%.