Category: World
El Niño Raises Global Economic Disruption Risks for Weaker Sovereigns
The formation of an El Niño weather phenomenon that is set to persist into early 2027 raises the risk of economic disruption in a range of sovereigns, says Fitch Ratings. Fitch is unlikely to link rating actions directly to El Niño unless the effects are clearly reflected in credit metrics, but related environmental stresses could […]
Fitch Changes Global Sovereigns Sector Outlook to ‘Deteriorating’ on Iran War Impact
Fitch Ratings has changed its 2026 global sovereign sector outlook to ‘deteriorating’ from ‘neutral’ because of the impact of the US-Iran war. We expect the conflict will weaken GDP growth, raise inflation and bond yields, and heighten geopolitical risks. However, recent resilience of the global economy and financing conditions temper risks. We have changed five […]
Oil Crisis Hits World Growth Outlook as Forecasts Revised Down: Fitch Ratings
World growth prospects have been hurt by the oil crisis prompted by the US-Iran war, Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO). This has led to Fitch lowering its 2026 forecast for global growth by 0.2pp to 2.4%. Forecast cuts have been widespread as higher inflation squeezes real wages, dampens consumption and […]
Oil Market Will Return to Oversupply Once Hormuz Reopens: Fitch Ratings
The Hormuz strait closure created a logistical supply shock but does not alter the direction of the market, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. A rapid production recovery in the region, strong non-OPEC growth and potentially more aggressive OPEC policy are likely to re-establish oversupply in 4Q26 and drive prices lower once the strait […]
Joint Statement by the Heads of International Energy Agency, IMF, World Bank Group & WTO
Washington – May 29, 2026: The Heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group and World Trade Organization met on May 28 as part of the high-level coordination group established in April to maximize their institutions’ response to the energy, trade, and economic impacts of the war in the Middle East. Following […]
President of Viet Nam and General Secretary of Viet Nam Communist Party to undertake a State Visit to Sri Lanka
The President of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam and the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Viet Nam, Tô Lâm will undertake a State Visit to Sri Lanka from 07-08 May 2026. The visit takes place at the invitation of President Anura Kumara Disanayaka following his State Visit to Viet Nam in 2025 to commemorate […]
VIDEO: BYD – The biggest scam of the car industry ?
For 100 years, the global car industry belonged to Germany, Japan, and the United States. In three years, BYD turned it into a bloodbath. Mercedes down 28%. Porsche lost 92% of its profits in a single year. Volkswagen cutting 50,000 jobs. Stellantis posting a $26 billion loss — its worst in history. And behind every […]
World Growth to Continue at Steady Pace if Oil Price Shock Short-Lived
Global economic growth should be steady this year provided the current oil price shock is not prolonged, Fitch Ratings says in its latest March 2026 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). The world economy has held up well despite a succession of geopolitical and US policy shocks. World growth was 2.7% last year, close to its long-run […]
Iran Conflict Raises New Credit Risks for Emerging Market Sovereigns: Fitch Ratings
The Iran conflict could raise additional challenges for some emerging market sovereigns, through such channels as energy imports, remittances, fiscal subsidies, exchange rates and access to international finance, Fitch Ratings says. Hydrocarbon exporters could see positive effects. Under our baseline, in which the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts less than a month […]
Risks of Middle East Aviation Disruption Rise the Longer It Lasts
The duration of the aviation disruption following the attacks launched by Israel and the US on Iran on 28 February and Iran’s subsequent attacks on countries in the region, will be fundamental to determining the implications for affected sectors, including airlines, airports, lodging, insurance and lessors, Fitch Ratings says. Our baseline expectation that the conflict […]
US ETR Falls to 9.4% as Blanket 10% Tariff Replaces IEEPA Levies: Fitch Ratings
The 10% blanket reciprocal tariff imposed by the U.S. on most trading partners lowers the U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR) to 9.4% from 12.7%, Fitch Ratings says. If the Trump administration imposes a 15% levy, the U.S. ETR would rise to 11.3%. President Trump acted swiftly to reinstate tariffs following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling […]
World GDP Forecasts Raised, but Evidence of US Slowdown Accumulates: Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings has raised its world growth forecasts for 2025 moderately since the June Global Economic Outlook (GEO) on better-than-expected incoming data for 2Q25. But there is now evidence of an underlying US slowdown in ‘hard’ economic data and positive surprises on eurozone growth have partly reflected US tariff front-running. Fitch still expects world GDP […]